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2011 Fantasy Football Advice

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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#1

Posted: August 08, 2011, 5:24 AM Post
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Posts: 74

I didn't see a thread yet for this and I didn't think it should be it's own topic just for my question.  I'm looking for help on 2 seperate keeper scenarios that I have.

Scenario 1 - 10 team league, 1 keeper player (no penalty for keeping a guy, though you are only allowed to keep a player for one season).  Drafting 7th

I'm considering keeping either Lesean McCoy or Drew Brees.  I'm leaning towards McCoy at this point.  Thoughts?


Scenario 2 - 12 team league, 2 keeper players (keeping a player forfeits the draft pick of the round from which he was drafted last year).  Drafting 11th

I'm keeping Jamal Charles for sure (give up 3rd round pick).  So that's the easy one.  I have 3 other options to consider (I've pretty much decided but want others thoughts on it).  Here are my choices:

Keep Steven Jackson (give up 1st round pick).
Keep Mike Wallace (give up 8th round pick).
Keep Santonio Holmes (give up 9th round pick).

I would almost certainly keep Wallace over Holmes I think so it basically boils down to Jackson and Wallace.  I looked at all the other rosters, and it seems to me that roughly 6-7 guys are going to keep their 1st round pick from last year, meaning in the first round I'd move up from 11th to probably in the 5 range if I keep Wallace or Holmes.  I will also have my next pick, 3 picks later as the 2nd pick in the 2nd round.  This is a pretty high money league, so I really need to get this right.  What would you guys do?



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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#2

Posted: August 08, 2011, 10:40 AM Post
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On the first one, I would lean ever so slightly towards McCoy, if only because I think he has a better chance of playing 16 games this season. If your league is PPR, then DEFINITELY McCoy.

For the second one, I agree with what I think you plan on doing...go with Wallace. Even if you thought Jackson had a bit more value, I think you can easily make that value up with your 1st round pick that you don't have to forfeit. Another way of looking at it is that if you end up with the 5th pick in the first round, you could easily get Jackson with that pick. If 6 guys are forfeiting 1st round picks and you have the 2nd pick in the 2nd round, you could probably get him there as well.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#3

Posted: August 08, 2011, 1:09 PM Post
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Posts: 74
I should have clarified, both of them are PPR leagues.

Yes, at this point my gameplan is to keep Wallace. I do have Jackson rated slightly higher, but getting Wallace in the 8th round is a huge value pick, as he should go no later than 4-5th rounds. Jackson on the flip side is likely somewhere in the second round this year, so that would be a reach with the 11th pick.

Obviously, I have no idea what the others in front of me will do, but I think I'm drafting no worse than 6th in the first round, which should net me a very good player (possibly even Jackson) and still have my pick at the top of the second round, which would be 9th overall if my guesses are close to correct. This nets me 4 of the top 33 players. I think that's the direction I'm going, so I'd start with Charles and Wallace, plus have those two picks to build the core around.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#4

Posted: August 08, 2011, 1:22 PM Post
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Yeah, in a PPR league, I would almost hazard to say that McCoy's value almost doubles Brees. Obviously Brees will still rack up a ton of points, but you have a much better chance of getting a QB that can put up decent points than a runner/receiver like McCoy.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#5

Posted: August 09, 2011, 10:50 AM Post
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I'm in the most basic of keeper leagues. You get to keep one guy from last year. So my decision is Adrian Peterson or Jamal Charles? I am pretty much leaning towards Peterson, but just seeing if anyone has a great argument for Charles. Thanks.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#6

Posted: August 10, 2011, 12:35 AM Post
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Worm, do you know what spot you'll be drafting this year? If it's reverse of last year, I'd say your probably near the bottom since you had both Charles and Peterson on your team.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#7

Posted: August 11, 2011, 12:58 AM Post
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Definitely Mike Wallace in exchange for an 8th.  Definitely Adrian Peterson over just about anyone...even though Jamaal Charles is top 10 overall as well I'd say.

What do people think about Mark Ingram?  I'm pretty sure I'm going to get 2 of the top 7 picks.  We can keep one or two players, and if you keep one you get to draft in the supplemental round to get your 2nd "keeper."  I have Aaron Rodgers as my lone keeper and am throwing back Greg Jennings back in the pool because he'll be there when I pick anyway so I'm not sure who's going to be available when I pick, so I'm thinking of Ingram with one of my first two picks.  Thoughts?


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#8

Posted: August 25, 2011, 1:13 PM Post
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Funny thing about the draft order in my league is that it's random. Not sure how they decided that but seeing that I won the league and could nab a top pick might be fun. It's also a 100 dollar league.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#9

Posted: August 30, 2011, 1:26 PM Post
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Posts: 39
Potential Trade:

He gives me Reggie Wayne and Sidney Rice. I give him Dez Bryant and Beanie Wells. I'm very tempted, but this is a dynasty league. I'd be giving up youth for potential gains this year and next.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#10

Posted: August 30, 2011, 3:28 PM Post
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Wayne is a sure thing but Rice is an unknown...new setting, new offense, and possibly Tarvaris Jackson throwing to him again. Pass. Put Charlie Whitehurst in there, and I might think about it.

Plus, Wells is practically carrying the "feature back" role that's becoming extinct, now that they traded Hightower and Ryan Williams is out for the year. And with Roy Williams gone, Dez should be strong as well. The only guy in that trade that's solid is Wayne, but I don't think that comes close to making up for the upside of Wells and Bryant.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#11

Posted: September 12, 2011, 2:36 AM Post
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I'm in a bit of a sucky situation that basically leaves me with no hope, but I feel like I have to take a chance. I have three WRs able to play tonight, but only for one spot. The best one is Brandon Lloyd. The problem is that my opponent is playing Kyle Orton, and I need to make up ten points on him.

My other options would be Ochocinco or Denarius Moore. Ochocinco has been sluggish, but could always have a breakout first game with the Pats. A reach, yes, but I'm very low on options. Moore has been a camp stud, and I think could see a lot of action if Campbell doesn't suck too much. And Denver's defense leaves a lot to be desired.

So I guess I'm torn on Ochocinco or Moore as my best option. Lloyd gives me the best chance at points, but the worst chance at winning, which is what it's all about. Unless, of course, Orton goes down, but I'm not the type to root for injury.

Someone please convince me of something.

Edit: and actually, I have to make up more than ten points because he has Gostkowski kicking for him tonight.  I think that leaves me leaning towards Moore since more production from Ochocinco would mean more points from Gostkowski.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#12

Posted: September 15, 2011, 10:40 AM Post
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I'm thinking of sitting Chris Johnson against Baltimore this weekend. I saw what the Ravens did against the Steelers, and CJ didn't play the preseason. I have enough depth to fill in. Do I risk him having a big game?


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#13

Posted: September 15, 2011, 10:45 AM Post
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Depending on what your depth actually is, I would sit him. Outside of a matchup against a terrible defense, I would sit him until he produces.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#14

Posted: September 15, 2011, 10:54 AM Post
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I'm in the same boat. I have Rice (no brainer) and Johnson as my main RB. I just picked up Ben Tate on Monday so I'm thinking of going with him instead of taking a chance that CJ does jack squat again--especially against BALT.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#15

Posted: September 15, 2011, 11:21 AM Post
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Sit Chris Johnson?  That's dumb.  And it doesn't even matter if he doesn't do a thing.  Unless of course you have some ridiculous stable of RBs.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#16

Posted: September 15, 2011, 1:20 PM Post
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oh, I know what you mean. I still can't live down the day that I sat Corey Dillon . . . . and then he set an NFL single game rushing record. That was difficult.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#17

Posted: September 16, 2011, 1:16 AM Post
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Sit Chris Johnson? That's dumb. And it doesn't even matter if he doesn't do a thing.

Actually, that matters an awful lot. I'm not sure if you understand the rules of fantasy football.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#18

Posted: September 16, 2011, 1:35 AM Post
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My point is there are some players you start week in and week out, and you don't feel bad about it when things don't go right, because why in the hell would you sit them to begin with?  Chris Johnson is one of those players.  Feeling bad about making the wrong decision on two or three questionable players with equal value is one thing.  Feeling bad about starting CJ2K?  C'mon man.  You might as well trade him if you're not going to start him.

Unless of course you have to decide between Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy every week.  My guess is that's not the case.  In pitchleague's case if Foster doesn't play I could understand it a little because Ben Tate pretty much IS Arian Foster when Foster is out,  and he has Ray Rice.  Without knowing who he'd sit him for the advice to sit Johnson unless he goes against a terrible defense is advice that I wish my opponents followed.  So go ahead and sit Chris Johnson based on one week where Baltimore didn't even really have to play the run and got 7 turnovers I guess.


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#19

Posted: September 16, 2011, 7:21 AM Post
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I knew what you meant. I was just picking on your choice of words Image Nothing personal.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Fantasy Football Advice
#20

Posted: September 20, 2011, 1:09 PM Post
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Posts: 39
Trade advice...

I get either Devry Henderson or Lance Moore, they get Mike Williams (TB). I'm thinking no, because who knows which Saint will have a big game...there is no go-to guy on that team. Williams is pretty much it for Freeman, outside of Kellen Winslow. Thoughts?


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