The thing is, and Millen pointed this out correctly as well, you need to do an onside kick either way. I don't know where to get a win probability listing, but I'm guessing it would have gone up if they had kicked the FG when they were in range (say, 40 yard FGish).

He should have gone for it on 4th down instead of punting to Indy before their final field goal.

Exactly, and this makes the end-of-game management all the more frustrating. He had already screwed up by punting on the 4th and 1, then screwed up the rest of the game. Just terrible game management.

Every head coach needs a nerd in his headset telling him probabilities and helping him make late-game decisions. The problem is that if the probabilities don't "play out," the media will tear the coach apart (see Belichick; 4th down or Morningwheg; taking the wind in overtime).

Interesting development in the Giants-Vikings game:
The Giants are stranded in Kansas City because the snowstorm has closed all Minneapolis airports.  There's a possibility they'll try to fly in Sunday morning and have the game moved back three hours.  Not sure what kind of effect this will have on them.

I'm not sure how they would handle this. As of now, it seems the NFL won't be pushing the game back, but this storm is moving at an incredibly slow pace. It was supposed to start at 7am in my neck of the woods, yet just started an hour ago (around 5pm). If they push it back to 3pm, it shouldn't have too much of an effect on anything, but past that they'll be entering prime-time territory, and I'm not sure what the rules are for that with TV coverage.

This storm has been talked about all week. How they didn't just plan on being in Minnesota by Thursday or early Friday is beyond me.

ESPN has to be going crazy over this. The game is being broadcast on Fox at 8pm ET on Monday, but only in New York and Twin Cities markets. In other words, ESPN just lost the New York market for Monday Night Football.