I had a nice long post breaking down all the teams that I feel still have a shot at making the BCS playoffs. But for some reason it didn't post when I hit submit. I don't have the time to do it all again so I'll just sum it up quick.

The way I see it, the following teams are still in contention for a playoff spot: Florida St, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St, Georgia, Baylor, TCU, Kansas St, Notre Dame, Michigan St and Ohio St and Oregon. That's 13 teams for 4 spots. Some of it will fix itself as some of the teams play each other in essentially elimination games (Michigan St vs Ohio St, Kansas St vs TCU, Auburn vs Georgia, etc). But as it stands now I see these four teams getting a big:

Florida St. - Just can't see them losing and as one of at most two undefeated teams they will not be left out

Alabama - I see them winning out. I think they can beat MSU, Auburn and probably Georgia in the title game. No way the SEC champion gets left out.

Mississippi St - I think they get more credit than they deserve for wins against Texas A&M and LSU. But Auburn was a good win and even if they lose to Alabama I think they maintain a top 4 spot

Oregon - Will benefit from the SEC West teams beating each other up. Look like a different team with their starting left tackle in the lineup. Even though the Pac 12 is weaker than expected I think they get in if they win out.

First four out: Notre Dame, Michigan St, TCU, Ole Miss. I think the first three all end up with one loss but don't have enough quality wins. I see Ole Miss losing twice more LSU and Missisippi St.

Thoughts? Predictions?

I hope they don't expand the playoffs anymore. College still has that fantastic pressure cooker environment each week. Playoffs do not objectively determine the best team, they merely reward good enough teams that play well at the end of the season.

I respectfully disagree. I think the biggest problem with college football when the BCS was alive, and even to a lesser extent now, is that pre-season rankings and when you lose play way too big a role in deciding where you end up. For instance, Mississippi St vaulted up the rankings after beating Texas A&M and LSU. Those two teams now have 5 losses between them but were both ranked highly when Mississippi St beat them. So even though LSU is now #16 and TAMU is unranked Mississippi St gets credit for two "top 10 wins". Not saying MSU isn't a good team, but whose to say MSU is any better than Oregon, Michigan St, Florida St, or TCU considering they aren't going to play any of those teams? It's almost entirely opinion. So out of 120 or so teams, you're trying to pick the only the best 4? It think this allows for two much human opinion and not enough "let them determine it on the field".

I think there is an obvious ideal situation. An 8 team playoff. The 5 champions of the "power conferences" get automatic bids. The highest rated conference champion of the non-power conferences get an automatic big. That leaves two at-large teams. No matter how many teams are in the playoffs there will always be schools claiming they should have gotten in. But that argument gets a little less compelling the further down you go. Plus by #9 you're getting into teams with multiple losses.

This season, if we were to go with my model, I think we could see something like this.

1) Florida St (ACC) vs 8) East Carolina (Non-power 5)
2) Alabama (SEC) vs 7) TCU (Big XII)
3) Oregon (Pac-12) vs 6) Notre Dame (at-large)
4) Michigan St (Big 10) vs 5) Mississippi St. (at-large)