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Conference Realignment-Maryland/Rutgers to the Big Ten

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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#21

Posted: September 17, 2011, 2:03 AM Post
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Pitt and Syracuse have reportedly applied to join the ACC, and Iowa State and Baylor have contacted the Big East to join their conference in the event the Big XII folds. Assuming this would happen either next year or 2013, that would put the ACC up to 14, Big East down to 7 football teams (with the addition of TCU), 9 if ISU and Baylor join as well. At that point, I see no scenario where the SEC and Pac 12 do not expand to 14/16 teams.

The obvious question in my mind is what would the Big 10 do? I always thought Pitt would make a fine addition to the conference athletics-wise, but wouldn't really bring anything new in terms of TV market. I could see a situation where the Big 10 and SEC fight to get Missouri (for the St. Louis and KC markets), then try to woo Notre Dame, who may have no choice but to join a conference. If they are forced into a conference, I think the Big 10 and Big East fight for their football membership (because the strongest football team in the Big East will be TCU, and ND already has all their other teams in the Big East).

Where does all of this leave Kansas and K-State? SEC? Big 10?

Edit:  My second paragraph needs tweaking.  I think the Big East will die as a football conference, and ND will join the Big 10 if forced.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#22

Posted: September 17, 2011, 5:50 AM Post
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I'd bet Kansas and K-St then go to the Big East as well and they have a East-West split.    I was actually hoping the Big East could survive this, but they need to decide if they want to be a basketball conference or a football conference.  You can't have it both ways.  All the schools you add for football will kill the basketball part, although I guess Kansas and Baylor aren't bad.  The Big East would look something like this.
East: Rutgers, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UConn, Louisville, Temple?
West: Kansas, K-St, TCU, Iowa St, Baylor, South Florida

They'd have to add someone else to get to that magical 12 number for a conference championship game. Temple maybe? Still a very weak looking football conference.  They could try to add Notre Dame but I can't imagine any scenario where Notre Dame would pick the Big East over the Big Ten.  Unfortunately I think the news of Pitt and Syracuse are the nail in the Big East's coffin.

I also hope the Big Ten doesn't take Missouri for granted.  Mizzou was really, really interested in going to to Big Ten before they settled on Nebraska.  Mizzou would be a good addition to the Big Ten but they need to make a decision before Mizzou starts to think the SEC is a better choice..

As far as the ACC goes, if the SEC picks up a few ACC teams like Virginia Tech, Clemson and FSU, and Maryland goes to the Big Ten, you may see basically a Big East/ACC merger.  Duke, UNC, NC State, Georgia Tech, Virgina, Wake Forrest, Miami, Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida.  That would be a very viable conference in both football and basketball.  Though I have no idea where it leaves schools like Kansas, K-St, Baylor, Iowa St and TCU.  They may have to try to survive with smaller schools like BYU, SMU, Houston, Rice, and so on.

All this speculating is kind of fun.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#23

Posted: September 18, 2011, 2:45 AM Post
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Sounds like Oklahoma might make a decision on their future as early as tomorrow. Obviously, OU leaving the Big 12 makes the conference's demise official.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#24

Posted: September 18, 2011, 3:37 AM Post
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I actually wonder if the Big East will now say OK to Iowa State and Baylor, thus being the demise of the Big 12. The Big East has 7 teams for next year (TCU moves next year, if I remember correctly).

This is all really nuts right now.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#25

Posted: September 18, 2011, 8:03 AM Post
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I think with the ACC solidifying their status, and taking BC and other ACC schools off the table, that Rutgers jumps out as a top B1G target. Who else in the non-ACC northeast would fit the B1G profile? And the B1G probably won't want to just sit back and let the ACC take full control of that region.

I've been pulling for Texas to give in on their Longhorn Network, but I think it's going to be just too much of an ego hit for them to bow down to B1G leadership. They'll go PAC.

Lastly, the pressure to join a conference will eventually get to Notre Dame, and I just can't see them going to the ACC or whatever happens to the Big East/Big 12 leftovers.

The only question then is if the B1G stops at 14 or 16. After ND and Rutgers, who's left? Missouri probably tops the list. But Maryland and BC wouldn't leave the now solidified ACC, and those were the last good options. Kansas? Maybe UConn?

If the B1G doesn't get Texas, there might not be enough good options to go to 16. It's not a requirement, after all.

EDIT: To sum it up, I think one of these two will happen:

(1) The B1G adds Rutgers and Notre Dame. Stops at 14. Wisconsin switches divisions.

(2) The B1G adds Rutgers and Missouri. Then later adds Notre Dame and X, where X is a less than ideal school who is worth it to add because they're coming in with ND.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#26

Posted: September 18, 2011, 12:43 PM Post
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UConn is likely petitioning to join the ACC soon, per ESPN.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#27

Posted: September 18, 2011, 12:50 PM Post
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The most logical step now is for Texas and Oklahoma to go the Pac-12. The question is whether they will take 2 more schools also. I think it is in their best interest not to. The other options do not have enough to offer.

I'm not sold on the super-conference model succeeding, especially if it becomes the Pac-16. Too many different schools with conflicting interests. When the TV deals are up for renewal again in 5-10 years, there will be more schools bailing.

The Big Ten really doesn't need to add anyone, especially if Notre Dame isn't involved. Every other addition besides Notre Dame would subtract from the conference, at least in the short term. If Notre Dame eventually decides to come on board, then Rutgers is the most logical addition to get to 14. Otherwise adding another mediocre football and basketball program is only another school to split the revenue pool with. Keeping a somewhat uniform geography will help keep the conference intact in the long, long term as well.

I do feel bad for the basketball only schools like Marquette. There is plenty of talk that they should get together and form a large basketball only conference. Or, maybe they can group up and join the Atlantic-10?


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#28

Posted: September 18, 2011, 1:40 PM Post
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A problem I see happening is scheduling. Say the Big 10 adds 2 more teams and gets to 14 teams---obviously 7 per division. You play the other six teams in your division, then 3 every year from the other division (they are going to a 9-game conference schedule in 2013). One of those games is protected, which means you rotate 2 teams every year. That means UW would play Iowa every 3 years, with 6 years between games at Camp Randall. If they go to 16 teams, it becomes every 4 years.

While I guess it's not a problem, per se, I know I would not be happy as a fan to play a rival every 3 years. An obvious answer would be to extend the conference season, but then you only get 2 non-conference games.

Also, with word getting out that UConn wants to move to the ACC as well, they will need one more team to get to the nice even 16. Who would be that candidate? They could also poach Rutgers, WVU, Louisville...or pretty much any other team from the Big East.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#29

Posted: September 18, 2011, 1:45 PM Post
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then Rutgers is the most logical addition to get to 14. Otherwise adding another mediocre football and basketball program is only another school to split the revenue pool with.

To me, Rutgers is just a mediocre football/basketball program.  Outside of the 2006 season (didn't they have Ray Rice?), they have been nothing special in a very weak football conference.  I know people talk about them because of the market, but do mediocre schools really draw an audience? 


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#30

Posted: September 18, 2011, 2:04 PM Post
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I want no part of Rutgers, as they bring little to the conference. As I said in a previous post, they'd need concrete evidence that a team will increase revenues, otherwise all the other schools essentially give themselves a pay cut. Obviously, I don't see them voting for that.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#31

Posted: September 18, 2011, 2:43 PM Post
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I agree, but someone has to come in a package deal with Notre Dame, they aren't going to expand to 13. Notre Dame plus any school is still a net revenue gain. Rutgers hasn't done much, but I think their recruiting would improve considerably if they joined the Big Ten. Missouri is a good choice also, but Rutgers has good potential. In five years, Pitt may be interested in forking out the $20 million to move from the ACC to the Big Ten. Or, just ask Notre Dame who they want to join with them.

If UConn goes to the ACC, Louisville and South Florida should be on their hands and knees begging for the ACC to take them, as they have virtually no shot at getting into the Big Ten or SEC. I have no idea who they will pick

I would like to see the Big East take some teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt to replenish (Memphis, UCF, FIU), while the basketball only schools combine with the A-10.

West Virginia is the best candidate for the SEC's 14th team, I see the SEC playing it conservative like the Big Ten and wait for the dust to settle.

I find it hard to believe that remnant Big 12 teams like Iowa State or Kansas would go to the Big East. It makes no sense whatsoever. The Big 12 teams will join up with the Mountain West or WAC. TCU will likely never play football in the Big East and will try to get in the new Mountain West/Big 12 which should have been formed after the last round of moves. It would be nice to get all the good football schools together, but I'm sure money will prevent it again. There is talk of schools like UCF going to the Big 12, which would be completely stupid, but of course the administration at UCF doesn't care, they just want to be in a "Big" conference no matter what. Schools like UCF and FIU have been positioning themselves for this for years and are just drooling at the opportunity to get picked up--they stand to be the biggest winners out of this whole mess since the Big East should be able to keep its BCS AQ bid.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#32

Posted: September 18, 2011, 6:35 PM Post
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I just hope the Big Ten doesn't sit on their hands too long.  They can sit there and claim they are fine at 12 but the fact is eventually they will going to have to expand.  And eventually is like....now.  The ACC has already gone up to 14 and will probably add UConn and Rutgers to get up to 16.  The Pac-12 is looking like they'll add Oklahoma, OK St, Texas, and Texas Tech to get to 16.  You know the SEC with their football ego will not sit at 14 then.  So while their 3 main rival conferences are going to 16 teams they the Big Ten is gonna sit tight at 12?  No way.  They have be proactive and go out and get teams while there are still teams to get.  Yes Notre Dame makes the most sense but the Big Ten has to ask Notre Dame.  And Missouri is a good fit.  They are an AAU member with above average athletic teams.  They border multiple Big Ten states and fit the mold well.  But Missouri isn't going to just sit and wait patiently for the Big Ten to invite them over while the Big 12 implodes around them.  That's the same thing with UConn and Rutgers.  I can't imagine they are dead set on going to the ACC.  They just want the security of a major conference and the ACC appears to be willing to take more teams.  I'd be willing to guess UConn and Rutgers would listen if the Big Ten came around talking.  But they need to do something before it's too late. And this is what I would do.

Invite Texas.  Somehow incorporate the Longhorn Network into the Big Ten Network and make it some sort of regional channel for Texas.  Let them broadcast whatever they want during the day and then they can broadcast non-conference games and conference games like the Big Ten Network does.  I don't know how the money aspect of it would work, but maybe sweeten the deal a bit since Texas is bringing a bunch of new markets into the fold.  Meanwhile Texas games would now be seen in the likes of Chicago, Detroit, Indy, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh on the Big Ten Network.

Invite Notre Dame.  It's a match made in heaven and doesn't need much explaining.

Invite Missouri.  I touched on it above but this also makes too much sense not to happen.

Pick another team, probably an ACC school like Maryland.  The exit fee is high but I'm sure something can be worked out.  Maryland is also an AAU member and brings in some nice markets.  If not them, go to BC (I'd actually prefer BC because of the hockey).   They may resist but money talks.  Imagine how big of a tv deal the Big Ten could get with Texas and Notre Dame.  These schools the ACC are getting (Pitt,  Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers) aren't exactly football powerhouses and I imagine Maryland or BC would at least listen, especially if Texas and Notre Dame join.  But the Big Ten has to hurry before Texas runs off to the Pac-12.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#33

Posted: September 18, 2011, 11:19 PM Post
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I agree Paul, I'd like to see the Big Ten be proactive instead of reactionary. ND is the obvious goal, but I'd try to talk to Oklahoma and Texas as well. I can't think they'd prefer traveling out west and having most of their road games on at 8-12 midnight eastern time when no one is watching vs. staying in the region.

The exit fee for the ACC or wherever won't be a hindrance for schools to come to the Big Ten- 20 million is roughly what each school takes home in ONE YEAR of broadcasting revenue in the Big Ten. Can you imagine what that jumps to even if they only add Notre Dame?

I'll take a school like Boston College over Rutgers without hesitation.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#34

Posted: September 19, 2011, 9:57 AM Post
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Nate Silver did about the best you can with the tools available to analyze the current realignment situation and figure out which teams are actually attractive to whom. Great read:

http://thequad.blogs.nyti...ignment-chaos/?src=twrhp

Spoiler alert, here's some of the meat from the Big 10 snippet:

The only plausible additions that would allow the Big Ten to improve upon its average of about 1.5 million fans per team are Notre Dame (2.3 million fans) and Texas (also 2.3 million). But good luck adding those schools.

Missouri, with 1.1 million fans — about as many as Nebraska — wouldn’t be far from the league average. Kansas (0.8 million) would be more of a stretch from a football standpoint but could bring in substantial college basketball revenues.

There’s also long been talk of the Big Ten expanding into the Notheast. But Rutgers (0.9 million fans) and Connecticut (0.6 million) are only middling targets on their own merits because of the relatively low enthusiasm for college football in the region (the same would have gone for Syracuse or Pittsburgh, which just decided to join the A.C.C.).

Then again, we estimate that there are about 0.6 [million] fans of the current Big Ten schools in the New York City market alone, so a lot of people might tune in hoping to see one of these schools lose.


Sounds like more evidence that UConn and Kansas are reaches and Missouri and Rutgers are at best on the fence, and the Big 10 doesn't seem likely to scramble to add teams on the fence. The more I think about it, the more I believe nothing will happen with the Big 10 unless Texas decides it wants to join on our terms (not happening) or Notre Dame finally caves (much more likely, though maybe not until the shockwaves reach the BCS Bowl system and Notre Dame literally has to get on the last train leaving the station). I really hope Notre Dame just caves now, particularly to boost the hockey conference, and so we still have a chance for one of the schools on the fence as #14.

He also mentions one dark horse candidate, which I'll leave for you to read about.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#35

Posted: September 19, 2011, 10:23 AM Post
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I could probably be convinced to take Missouri if ND came on.

Tech would be interesting...


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#36

Posted: September 19, 2011, 10:27 AM Post
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Reports from ESPN that the Big East and Big 12 are talking about merging in the event that Oklahoma and Texas bolt.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#37

Posted: September 19, 2011, 1:06 PM Post
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These are the teams I think the Big Ten should pursue (in order)
1) Texas
2) Notre Dame
3) Boston College
4) Missouri
5) Maryland
6) Rutgers
7) Virginia Tech
Cool Kansas

I'd be satisfied with any combination of four of them.  But make no mistake about it.  Notre Dame and Texas are by far the two biggest fish.  And getting Boston College would be a coup.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#38

Posted: September 20, 2011, 3:03 AM Post
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Apparently West Virginia's application to both the SEC and ACC has been denied: https://twitter.com/#!/frankthetank111/statuses/116176609232429056

Which means Missouri is almost certainly the SEC's #14.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#39

Posted: September 20, 2011, 8:19 AM Post
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sbrylski06 said:
Which means Missouri is almost certainly the SEC's #14.
Yup: http://www.kansascity.com...u-has-sec-offer-but.html

The possibility of the Big 10 going to 16 schools has official sailed at this point, if that was even ever considered a goal or option. I think 14 is the new 16, and there will still be 5 AQ conferences, so there's nothing wrong with staying at 12.

Big 10 will just sit tight at 12 schools until Notre Dame eventually comes knocking*, then add Rutgers (or Kansas as a lesser chance) along with them.
The ACC will sit at 14 schools, knowing they have a chance at Notre Dame if they wait until they finally need to join a conference. And it's not like Rutgers and UConn are going to go anywhere but the Big 12 + Big East merged conference, so they can afford to wait.
The SEC will probably stop at 14 as well, with the better options dried up. You might say they could try to raid the ACC for two teams, but I think the ACC is way stronger than most people give it credit for.
The PAC is probably going to add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but apparently they aren't ready to give into Texas' demand for special television contract considerations either.

I have no idea what Texas is going to do. As they are, nobody is willing to take them. They'll have to change, but they aren't willing. Something has to give.

*Notre Dame won't sacrifice their football independence until they have to. Which means as long as there's that fifth, weaker conference, they'll put their Olympic sports in it. Neither the Big 10 nor the ACC would let them do that. And a playoff system that would require them to be in a conference is not on the immediate horizon either. Their hockey team will probably be in limbo for a while, until all the football dust settles.

EDIT: And then this comes out: http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1267981

Strange. Missouri should absolutely jump at getting out of the sinking ship that is the Big 12 and accept the SEC invite. Chip Brown has been a Texas mouthpiece, so I'm questioning the credibility of the article. Texas wants to save the Big 12, and wants people to think others do too. Not sure why anyone but them would want that though, especially one with a standing invite to another power conference.


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  A&M to the SEC/Pitt & Syracuse to ACC/Conference Realignment
#40

Posted: September 20, 2011, 3:01 PM Post
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Wow, looks like the Big 12 is going to survive another round of turmoil, just like last year, as the PAC won't give into Texas' demands either, and won't take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State by themselves. The PAC is staying at 12: http://www2.registerguard...2-decides-not-to-expand/

A&M is for sure gone, but the SEC won't play for Oklahoma, because they would also have to take Oklahoma State, which they don't want to do. I'm not really sure if Missouri plans to be SEC's #14 or not, but if they have an invite, they should jump FOR SURE.

For anyone not keeping track, the Big 12 has now lost Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and possibly Missouri over the course of the last 12 months, and yet it still won't die. Oklahoma just can't get away from Texas, who no other conference is willing to take because they won't share their media revenues evenly.


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