With the long weekend, and with the defensive coordinator and scheme in place, it's time for an early preview of the 2009 Packers draft. I know the combine has yet to happen, but unless someone gets injured or arrested they usually don't move as many spots based on the combine workout numbers as people would like to believe. The slots have been determined for the 3rd round pick they get from the Jets in the Favre trade, and they acquired a 6th round pick this year in exchange for one of their 7th round picks last year.

Perhaps as big as the new defensive coordinator and scheme in determining what happens is what the Packers think of the future of.... Daryn Colledge. If they think he is a legitimate left tackle then they can focus on the defense in the early rounds. If not, then they will have to think long and hard about one of the top tackles available. Also, TT's track record is if he has a position of need he drafts two players at that position to increase the chances that at least one of them will work out, so expect to see two DL and two OT picked. Anyway, here's my predictions along with some other possibilities for that pick:

1st (#9 overall) - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Yes, I finally flipped them; I think people underestimate Kampman as an OLB and they can get undersized DEs who can switch to an OLB in the 3-4 later in the draft. He can play NT in the 3-4, and had 8 sacks and 16 TFL his senior year. Can be a disruptive force in the backfield. Although I'm still only 52/48 on him over Orakpo. Plus Pickett is a free agent after this year and they may need the $$ to resign Jennings and Collins, and that's the thing that tips me to Raji's favor. Other possibilities:
If he's still available: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - athletic enough to be a franchise LT for years to come, good fit for ZBS
Don't be surprised if it's: Aaron Maybin, OLB/DE, Penn State - Limited experience, but huge upside given his age (20) and success; put up great numbers at their pro day

2nd round - Troy Kropog, OT, Tulane
Another athletic OT that could be the LT of the future, great pass protector with great feet and work ethic. Again, I think the dropoff in OT talent is not as much as DE, and they can get quality OT at this position. Unfortunately Jamon Meredith has put up such good workout numbers at the draft that I don't think he'll still be around here. Gerald Cadogan (Penn State) had a great combine and may move up into this spot; I have always liked Penn State linemen, they seem to do well in the pros.
If he's still available: Alex Mack, C, Cal - upgrade the center position with the best center in the draft; athletic, very smart, physical and aggressive
Don't be surprised if it's: Traded - either for a player (the Al Harris and Keith Jackson trades, both for 2nd rounders, worked out very well... and you know TT will have to get a later round pick back in the deal also), or packaged with one of their 3rd round picks to move up into the first round and get an OT like Eben Britton (Arizona) or Jamon Meredith (South Carolina) if there's a run on them like last year since they have an extra 3rd round pick; Indianapolis makes a nice trading partner at #27. I think the Packers really like Meredith because of his athleticism and (gasp) his versatility - I believe he played LG during their bowl game. Almost every team ahead of them in the 2nd round needs an OT, and if they don't get one in the first they will look for one in the 2nd.

3rd round (own) - Jarren Gilbert, DE, San Jose St.
Free agency isn't yielding any DEs, so they have to get one of the few available; at 6'5", 288 he certainly is big enough. Led nation in TFL as a senior. Aren't afraid to draft guys from San Jose St. in the 3rd round. Athletic enough to jump out of a pool on to the deck. See YouTube.
If he's still available: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College - many feel he can be a good anchor at NT in a 3-4; if they go other than Raji at #9 he could very well be on their radar
Don't be surprised if it's: Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati - put up amazing sack numbers in his only season at DE after moving from TE; great workout numbers at the combine (ran a 4.66), could play TE in a pinch (you know they like versatility)

3rd round (Jets) - James Casey, TE/WR/FB, Rice
Perhaps the most amazing stat line I have ever seen for a player, much less a sophomore, in 2008: 111 rec, 1329 rec yds, 13 rec TDs; 57 carries, 248 rush yds, 6 rush TDs; 14 punt returns for 112 yards, and 2-5 passing for 5 yards and 2 passing TDs. And as a freshman contributed for 1/2 sack on defense. Tory Humphrey was surprisingly not tendered an offer, and Casey offers a lot of versatility and potential weapons to have on offense. See the stats for yourself.
If he's still available: Sean Smith, CB, Utah - they will need a big corner to match against Calvin Johnson for years to come, and at almost 6'2" this guy doesn't come any bigger. 9 career interceptions, five last year for 151 yards.
Don't be surprised if it's: Zack Follett, OLB, Cal - doesn't have the ideal measurables but gets it done; 51 career TFL, 23.5 career sacks, 15 career passes defended, including 23 TFL and 10.5 sacks last year

4th round - Courtney Greene, S, Rutgers
Four year starter with almost 400 career tackles, will come up and support the run as well as any safety in the draft; key interception sealed their bowl game win. They need a thumper at safety who can support the run and make the tackle. Bigby and Collins are approaching free agency; I think Bigby is a good backup and special teamer but I'm not sold on him as a starter. I don't think Anthony Smith is the answer either.
If he's still available: Vance Walker, DT/DE, Georgia Tech - TT keeps an eye on guys whose stock falls because of injuries their senior year; as a junior Walker had 8.5 sacks and 14 TFL as a DT, but will probably have to play DE as he is not big enough for a NT in a 3-4.
Don't be surprised if it's: Some dude I have never heard of - it happens every year, whether it's James Jones (3rd), Josh Sitton (4th), or Tony Moll (5th), somewhere in the middle he nabs someone not on anyone's radar

5th round - Robert Brewster, OT, Ball State
I watched him in their conference championship game and their bowl game, and he is athletic for a RT with great feet and solid technique, great pass protection as no one got anywhere near the QB on his side. If TT has a need he drafts two players at that position, one early and one late, to help ensure that at least one of them pans out.
If he's still available: DeAndre Levy, OLB, Wisconsin - Good weakside OLB who can rush the passer and was a great blitzer (15 career sacks) or drop into coverage (8 passes defensed, 2 career INTs), not afraid to hit somebody. Given his smaller size, a lot rides on how fast he runs at his workout.
Don't be surprised if it's: Mitch King, DE/DT, Iowa - the last DE they picked from Iowa in the 5th round turned out pretty well, played DT in college, could be a good DE in a 3-4.

6th round (own) - Philip Hunt, DE/OLB, Houston
34.5 career sacks and 53.5 career TFL; at 6'2", 250 lbs, he will probably have to move to OLB, but could make a good pass rushing OLB in a 3-4.
If he's still available: Troy Nolan, S, Arizona St. - in two years amassed 10 interceptions for 296 yards and 4 TDs, plus returned a fumble 44 yards for a TD; not the fastest safety, but has the instincts and is a ballhawk and playmaker
Don't be surprised if it's: Stryker Sulak, OLB/DE, Missouri - rising on boards, big enough for OLB in 3-4 with 22.5 career sacks

6th round (Saints) - Kevin Huber, P, Cincinnati
The punting game struggled, so they pick the best punter in the draft; averaged 44.95 per punt and a net of 44.54(!), so you know he gets them high enough that they aren't returned much.
If he's still available: Travis Bright, OG, BYU - allows them to move Spitz to center and Colledge to LT if that is where they see their future
Don't be surprised if it's: Jason Williams, OLB, Western Illinois - good size, very athletic, can blitz or drop back and cover; again, question is quality of competition in 1-AA; reminds me of a poor-man's Wayne Simmons.

7th round - DJ Clark, CB, Idaho St.
Four year starter with 15 career INTs for 289 yards; great size (6'1 1/2", 200 lbs) and speed, only knock is level of competition in 1-AA. They have time to stash him away and let him develop.
If he's still available: TJ Lang, OT, Central Michigan - They like the athletic small-school OLs, and he fits the bill
Don't be surprised if it's: Lee Robinson, OLB. Alcorn St. - the last player they picked in the 7th round from Alcorn St. turned out pretty well

Bonus - potential undrafted free agents (UFA's):
Chris Miller, P, Ball St. - injured senior year, but one of the top punters in the nation his sophomore and junior seasons
Marcus Bernard, DE/OLB, Jackson St. - one of the top pass rushers in 1-AA, 14.5 sacks his senior year
Greg Peach, DE/OLB, Eastern Washington - led 1-AA in sacks with 18, totaled 29 sacks as a junior and senior
Marlon Lucky, RB, Nebraska - not a game-breaker, and lost starting job as a senior, but a great 3rd down back - caught 135 passes in his career including 75 passes as a junior
Ryan McKee, OT, Southern Mississippi - also fits the bill of athletic smaller-school OL
Eddie Williams, FB, Idaho - caught 83 passes for over 1000 yards and 9 TDs combined his junior and senior year

Have fun with it!

What is the success rate on acquiring punters/kickers through the draft? Anecdotally, it seems like it's gotta be under 50%.

Technically that is about right for what I've seen the last few years. But I don't think that is any different from any other position for players drafted in the 6th or 7th round. What percentage of players drafted in the 6th or 7th round actually end up making the team, much less contributing anything?

Flynn - backup, Swain - cut/practice squad, Hall - part-time starter, Bishop - backup, Crosby - starter, Wynn - backup/starter/cut/practice squad/backup, Harris - cut, Jolly - starter, Culver - backup, Tollefson - cut, Montgomery - backup, Bragg - cut, Campbell - cut, Whitticker - starter by default/cut.

So of the guys drafted in the sixth or seventh round recently, only three are starters and one of them is a kicker. The thing with kickers and punters is that teams usually only carry one, so they either make the team as a starter they are cut. There is virtually no chance to make it as a backup. Thus it appears that they have a lower success rate, however I would say that their success rate as a "starter" is higher than any other position.

Edit - I also edited the original post, and swapped out Aaron Curry for BJ Raji. Raji can play NT in a 3-4, and has the ability to penetrate and make plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Had this been 2-3 years ago I think the trade down would have been a great idea, but they are the youngest team in football and they need potential stars more than good players and depth. I'm more willing to take the risk/reward of the #9 pick with the greater upside, and would be more inclined to use one of the 3rd round picks and either package it with the 2nd round pick to move up into the first round or use it to trade for the right veteran.

Also edited my predictions and added Ron Brace in place of Gerald Cadogan. I'm also 52/48 right now on Orakpo over Raji.