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With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....

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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#21

Posted: February 11, 2014, 12:25 AM Post
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The other thing that those teams plus Pittsburgh have in common is that generally they don't invest high draft picks in defensive linemen, specifically DEs. Defensive tackles/nose tackles, sometimes, but few of the DL on those teams were higher than a 3rd round draft pick. Particularly in a 3-4, the job of the DL is to tie up the linemen so the LBs can make the plays. Pittsburgh and SF have invested high picks in LBs, and to an extent GB has as well (Matthews, Perry, Hawk), but that's why I was never really on board with the Datone Jones pick - DEs in a 3-4 typically don't have much impact. Pittsburgh has gotten away from that recently, but Ziggy Hood and Cam Heyward have been disappointments (Mike Daniels has more sacks in two seasons than Cam Heyward has had in three) thus lending more evidence to not spending first round picks on that position in a 3-4.

I don't think CB is overvalued, particularly with how the passing rules have evolved to favor the offense, but I do think that safety is undervalued and thus why in the last few years you see safeties drafted higher than projected. We all saw how much better the defense was with Collins back there, as opposed to a lost McMillan or Jennings.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#22

Posted: March 14, 2014, 7:56 PM Post
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After a pretty decent start to the FA, I'm beginning to wonder if the Packers trade down.

Their major "needs":
- Center, Safety, Tight End, Middle Linebacker.

Those are spots traditionally not taken in the 1st round. Not to "throw away" a 1st pick, but if we can pick up a high second 2nd and 3rd for our 1st...

Lots of guys that could help our team seem to be in the range.

I'm really thinking Abbrederis is going to be a steal in the 3rd or 4th round. Borland looks like he will be in the 2-3rd rounds. The best centers are in the 2-3rd rounds. C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE from Iowa) is projected to be in the 3-4th round.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#23

Posted: March 15, 2014, 9:20 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
After a pretty decent start to the FA, I'm beginning to wonder if the Packers trade down.

Their major "needs":
- Center, Safety, Tight End, Middle Linebacker.

Those are spots traditionally not taken in the 1st round. Not to "throw away" a 1st pick, but if we can pick up a high second 2nd and 3rd for our 1st...



It is probably a trade down year. I think our major needs in order are "Safety, ILB, C, Tight End, KR/PR".

Thompson failing to get an impact Safety in free agency (Byrd or Ward) puts him behind the 8-ball. If he fails to get Dix or Pryor and goes into next season with the status quo (albeit healthy Burnett), we should be extremely disappointed. Every place else can be filled with talent from the appropriate round, as CheezWiz said. We can not afford another mediocre talent at Safety.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#24

Posted: March 18, 2014, 10:13 PM Post
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I'm not sold on Pryor. He's a hard-hitter but that's not necessarily what the Packers need - what they need is an assignment-sure centerfielder who isn't going to blow coverages and is going to make plays in the defensive backfield, not at the line of scrimmage. That's why I don't like Bucannon - he's a hard-hitter, but struggles in coverage. Pryor didn't make a lot of plays and create a lot of turnovers considering he played in a lesser conference. I'd consider him for their 2nd round pick, but not their first.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#25

Posted: March 19, 2014, 7:23 AM Post
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I've read somewhere that both the safeties (Pryor/Dix) are dropping and might both go in the second round.

Which gives more possibility of trading back into the second round. If I were a betting man and both Pryor and Dix are there at 21, I'd almost guarantee a trade down (assuming someone wants to trade up).


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#26

Posted: March 19, 2014, 7:40 AM Post
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Dix won't be the BPA at 21, which is too bad. I think TT would take Nix, Hageman, Barr (or the best OLB left), or the best CB left before he takes a safety, wideout, or ILB in the first round that isn't clearly amazing.

The first two days probably go DL, ILB, S/WR, WR/S


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#27

Posted: March 19, 2014, 9:32 AM Post
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I'm gonna be a little disappointed if we go DL in the first round. TT does a great job finding trench guys in later rounds, so I would prefer the first round pick to be a skill position. If we don't take a safety in the first three rounds, they better be damn sure about Hyde or Richardson.

I could see a trade down if players fall. I'm thinking the first pick will be ILB or S no matter where it falls.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#28

Posted: March 19, 2014, 12:36 PM Post
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Here's the list of positions played by TT's first round draft picks: QB, ILB, DE, NT, OLB, OT, OT, OLB, DE

Can we learn anything from that, or am I reaching? Defensive front seven has been the target every year, aside from the two offensive tackles. I'm expecting defensive front seven again, and not an ILB, because the focus is pass rush.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#29

Posted: March 19, 2014, 2:56 PM Post
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I'm not saying what I think TT will do, only what I hope he will do. What concerns me about that list is the success of those picks. I was referring to only OL and DL, not necessarily LBs. In those drafts, we then have Justin Harrell, a monumental bust, Raji, who could go either way, but overall has been disappointing, Bulaga and Sherrod, which were both good picks but neither can stay healthy. Then Datone Jones, who I really like and hope is successful, but as of now we don't really know what his future holds.

With what we have right now, I would say our best defensive lineman at the moment is Mike Daniels, a 4th round pick. On the offensive line, there's Bakhtiari, a 4th round pick, Lang, a 4th round pick, Sitton, a 4th round pick, and hopefully Tretter, a 4th round pick, will replace EDS, who was undrafted. The only other guy on the offensive line that deserves a mention is Barclay, who was also undrafted. At some point, we can't keep drafting early OTs and hoping someone, anyone, will stay healthy for a full season. Some year they'll all be healthy and we'll have multiple 1st rounders fighting for one spot as we struggle to fill the other Safety spot with someone off the street.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#30

Posted: March 19, 2014, 3:06 PM Post
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Especially after last year's draft (Jones, Boyd) and FA this year (Raji, Peppers, Guion), DL is a pretty low priority, IMO. Someone pretty special would have to be there to really focus on DL this year.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#31

Posted: March 19, 2014, 5:54 PM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
Especially after last year's draft (Jones, Boyd) and FA this year (Raji, Peppers, Guion), DL is a pretty low priority, IMO. Someone pretty special would have to be there to really focus on DL this year.


Unless we sign Jolly, I think we have a pretty big need for another DL yet. We only have one guy that can truly play the nose, and that's Raji. We also have a bunch of pass rushers and no real run stoppers. I think we definitely need another 320-pounder that has some versatility.

The more I look at this draft and our team right now, the more I think true-BPA this year - WR, CB, TE, ILB, etc - whoever holds the most promise. Let's actually hit big on a first rounder for a change, it's been a while.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#32

Posted: March 20, 2014, 6:50 AM Post
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Someone pretty special would have to be there to really focus on DL this year
Let me clarify: to focus on DL in the first round this year.

I'm not saying the DL is complete and we don't need to draft anyone. The context was looking at who we pick in the 1st round.

As for NT, I would imagine Josh Boyd will fill the backup role. He is only listed at 310, but I wouldn't be surprised if he puts on some weight to backup Raji.

I'm also for signing Jolly. He seemed to bring an emotional lift to the team.

And since Raji is on a 1 year contract, I'm sure there will be a late round draft/UFDA selection of a NT.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#33

Posted: March 20, 2014, 11:35 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
Someone pretty special would have to be there to really focus on DL this year
Let me clarify: to focus on DL in the first round this year.

I'm not saying the DL is complete and we don't need to draft anyone. The context was looking at who we pick in the 1st round.

.


Completely agree. This thread deals with the first pick of the draft. If we go DL here at this point, I'll be extremely peeved. BPA at Safety or Tight End.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#34

Posted: March 24, 2014, 7:27 AM Post
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What is everyone's opinion on LB Ryan Shazier, OSU?

A lot of scouting reports project him as a 4-3 OLB, but why not play him as a 3-4 ILB? He's fast and explosive with a low 4.4 40 time, so he would be a sideline-to-sideline player, great at spying athletic QB's, and can be coached up to match fast TE's in pass defense. He's also a great college blitzer, but probably doesn't have the size to be an NFL OLB in the 3-4 and face off against tackles. His athleticism makes him versatile enough to play in a number of subpackages in different roles.

I think he's similar to Kyle Van Noy in productivity and versatility, but much faster and more athletic with better combine numbers across the board (even bench). CBS Sports compares Van Noy to Chad Greenway, while Shazier is compared to Lavonte David.

For months my mind has been locked on getting one of Clinton-Dix, Nix, Hageman, or Moseley, but Shazier might crack into my BPA-candidate pool.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#35

Posted: March 25, 2014, 9:08 AM Post
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Best scouting breakdown I've found on Shazier: http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/st ... -breakdown


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#36

Posted: March 25, 2014, 7:30 PM Post
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My opinion on Shazier is that he's a little undersized. I'm wary of undersized guys who don't run at the combine, but then run at their pro day. Do they put on weight for the combine to make them look bigger, then take the weight off at their pro day so they can run faster? The scouting report I see says maybe a weakside ILB in a 3-4 if covered up by a good, blocker-engulfing NT.

That being said, I'm warming up to the idea of him, if his weight at the combine wasn't artificially inflated; the fact that he could cover RBs out of the backfield is a plus. One of the things I like about Van Noy though is his leadership; Ziggy Ansah said that he credits Van Noy with teaching him how to be a great football player. As for speed, I really think that most of the time a smart, instinctive football player can more than make up for a few tenths of a second in speed by being able to diagnose plays earlier and knowing where he needs to be.


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#37

Posted: March 26, 2014, 7:14 AM Post
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Don't they weigh/measure at the Pro Day?


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#38

Posted: March 26, 2014, 7:46 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
My opinion on Shazier is that he's a little undersized. I'm wary of undersized guys who don't run at the combine, but then run at their pro day. Do they put on weight for the combine to make them look bigger, then take the weight off at their pro day so they can run faster? The scouting report I see says maybe a weakside ILB in a 3-4 if covered up by a good, blocker-engulfing NT.


Fair criticism, but the 40-time wasn't out of nowhere. Anyone watching tape of him can see that he plays insanely fast.

EDIT: Okay, I just saw this picture of him running the 40 on his pro day, where he again weight in at 237. He does NOT look small, and zero fat "just to bulk."

Image

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... u-pro-day/


That being said, I'm warming up to the idea of him, if his weight at the combine wasn't artificially inflated; the fact that he could cover RBs out of the backfield is a plus. One of the things I like about Van Noy though is his leadership; Ziggy Ansah said that he credits Van Noy with teaching him how to be a great football player.


Is it just me, or does it seem like a lot of the draftees this year have the "leadership" label. That's a good thing, but I've seen a bunch of "good character" guys this year. Shazier's been praised for that. (And not to knock Van Noy, but I think Ziggy Ansah could have learned things about football from anyone - he was like the Waterboy when he joined the team.)

As for speed, I really think that most of the time a smart, instinctive football player can more than make up for a few tenths of a second in speed by being able to diagnose plays earlier and knowing where he needs to be.


Well I think Shazier has both. Look at this play again:

http://fat.gfycat.com/FickleInsidiousAcaciarat.webm

Shazier moves three steps to his right before the Badgers' lineman are out of their stance as if he knows where the play is going. He's lined up 4-5 yards off the LOS in the B gap, and is already in the opposite A gap and at the LOS when the running back is handed the ball (part instinct, part speed). The OSU DT in front of him gets a decent chip block on the guard (54), who is clearly tasked with getting to the second level and blocking Shazier, but even without the help Shazier is past 54 before the QB even turns around to find the RB. The guard didn't stand a chance and didn't get within 3 yards of Shazier.

The only negative about the play, and this is nitpicking, but he hits the RB a bit high. At least he wraps up though. If you watch the tape, he does look a little small, but he hits like a player 20 pounds heavier - that said, he'll probably need to be more consistent in his tackling technique for to make sure he can bring down ballcarriers at the NFL level.

---

My overall take on Shazier's size is pretty much what LouisEly said at the beginning, he needs to be in a scheme that primarily leaves him in space. The 4-3 Will position is therefore perfect for him. However, if we remain in a 2-gap system in the base and have Raji primarly tasked with eating up blockers, our system is also designed to get our LB in space and unblocked. He's a much worse fit in the more common one-gap 3-4's used these days, but on Green Bay or Pittsburgh (who drafted the similar Sean Spence two years ago) I think he can play ILB just fine, especially considering how often we tend to put Hawk and Jones in space in our subpackages (who generally suck in space).


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#39

Posted: March 26, 2014, 7:29 PM Post
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You're convincing me... but that picture makes me wonder if he is "chemically inflated". The list of people who are that ripped naturally is a very, very short list. If he's clean, and if he's keen on the idea of playing in GB longer than his rookie contract, then I can buy him being the first round pick.

The other question is, is Raji going to want to be that blocker-engulfing NT that needs to play in front of Shazier to be effective?


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  Re: With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft.....
#40

Posted: March 27, 2014, 8:18 AM Post
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Now that I've convinced you, I want to take a step back and clarify that Shazier should only be considered if we don't fully switch to a one-gap system.

It appears we are taking cues from the Seahawks defense with the implementation of the elephant position. You create a 4-3 Under defense by putting the elephant (or "Leo") on the weakside. The defense would align with one-gap assignments in a traditional 4-3 Under (see below).

However, use of the elephant is often called a hybrid formation because it's easy to incorporate 3-4 principles. Namely, the elephant will play standing up with occasional outside linebacker duties, and the defensive line will pay a mix of one- and two-gap assignments in order to free up the linebackers to make plays.

Image

Here you see the Seahawks playing the hybrid 4-3 Under:

Image

All of that said, there were reports when Peppers was signed that we would play him in the elephant position, but on the strong side of the formation. Here's how that would look:

Image

Point is, there are still some unknowns regarding the Packers base scheme for next season. I'm guessing we employ one of the two hybrids above given that we are trying to move from a true, two-gap 3-4 (three two-gapping defensive lineman).

However, you could also make a case that our defensive personnel is better suited for a one-gap system. We don't have any great 5-technique defensive lineman (the DE/DT expected to cover the B and C gaps) to plug into the hybrid formations. I think Datone Jones was drafted to play this spot, but he did not look good shedding blocks last year (Jolly would be best in this spot). Daniels, Worthy, and Neal are all better as 3-technique lineman expected to shoot the B gap on the weakside. Even Raji might be best as an aggressive one-gap player in the middle shooting the A-gap. If they switch to a one-gap system, that would essentially be a switch to a true 4-3, so it's something to watch for.

But back on point, I think Shazier would fit great as the weakside ILB in the two-gap 4-3 Under. With Raji, Daniels/Neal/Worthy, and Peppers occupying the center, weakside guard, and weakside tackle, Shazier won't have to worry about taking on 300+ pound lineman very often in the base. Same fit in the 4-3 Under Flip, only it would be Raji, Daniels/Neal/Worthy, and Matthews helping him take on the C/G/T. Hawk has had years to step up as a playmaker with that same kind of help around them, and Hawk continually fails to make tackles until the ballcarrier gets 3+ yards past the line of scrimmage. And we all know his struggles with pass coverage. Our defensive line isn't great, but even when they do their job, our ILB's don't make them look good. <- That is what Shazier could do.

EDIT:

Another variation:

Image


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