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2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions

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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#1

Posted: March 07, 2011, 5:59 PM Post
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It's that time of year again, and time for my annual predictions.  This year's draft really comes down to three guys on the current roster: Bulaga, Lang, and Newhouse.  The team's #1 need is to protect the health of Aaron Rodgers, and they have one aging tackle likely gone (Tauscher) and another very good yet aging tackle (Clifton) who won't be around much longer.  Lang looked decent in limited action at LT, but MM has said he views his future at G and MM also made comments about how he didn't see as much improvement from year 1 to year 2 with Lang as he had hoped.  Newhouse was the starting LT on some very good TCU teams, and although he didn't see action they wouldn't have kept him on the roster if they didn't think he had potential.  If they think Bulaga can eventually play LT and if they think Lang and Newhouse can play tackle, then they may not need to draft an OT.  If they don't think Bulaga can play LT, if Lang truly is a guard, and if Newhouse is just a guy, then I think they go OT in the first 2-3 rounds.

One general prediction - the Packers will trade up somewhere in the draft.  They should have an extra pick from Carolina for long-snapper JJ Jansen (likely a 7th), and should have a comp pick for Kampman.  I'll be conservative and say it's a 5th.  The Packers also likely have Nick Barnett on the trading block, and his best return value may come packaged with a pick to move up.  I don't think they will get as good of a value for him for a draft pick straight up.

So here goes... have fun!

1st Round: Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada - a bit of a reach?  Maybe, but this is the most difficult pick to predict because the Packers will go Best Player Available here regardless of position.  That's why I think he's the pick - I think a guy who is 6'1", 248 lbs, runs a 4.44 40-yard dash, and had 71 career TFLs and 28.5 career sacks is likely the best player available here because I think the top OTs and DEs will be off the board.  Read that again - 6'1", 248 lbs, 4.44, 71 career TFLs - think about that opposite Matthews.  If he's not the pick at #32, I could easily see the Packers trading up to the middle of the 2nd round to get him (Barnett + their 3rd round pick for a mid-2nd round pick).  (Replaces Brady Poppinga)
If he's still available: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin - see #1 need above: protect Aaron Rodgers.  Between him and Bulaga, one should be good enough to play LT and the other plays RT, and you have potentially another decade of bookend OTs.
Don't be surprised if it's: Muhammed Wilkerson, DL, Temple - with the likely loss of Jenkins they will need to replace his production, and Wilkerson has prototypical size for a 5-technique, is productive, and as a true junior is young enough to still be developing and have even greater upside.  Neal and CJ Wilson both looked good for rookies, but Wilkerson may be too talented to pass up here.

2nd Round: Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma - some injury concerns, but he showed his speed at the combine and if he's not asked to be the #1 back and his carries are limited he should be OK.  Quiz - of all of the RBs to come out of Oklahoma, did you know Murray holds the career record for TDs, all-purpose yards, and receiving yards?  Bonus - averaged 27 yards on 52 career punt returns.  No more Tramon Williams on punt returns.  Again, I think he's the BPA at the end of round 2.  As much as I like Brandon Jackson and think Jackson is a very good 3rd down back, I think Murray is too hard to pass up here. (Replaces Brandon Jackson)
If he's still available: DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas - again, simply because protecting Rodgers is priority #1 and OTs are like starting pitchers - you can never have too many good ones.  Also has played G, and it's possible that both Colledge and Spitz may not be back.
If they haven't drafted Moch yet: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona - while Jones, Zombo, and Walden all have shown flashes, they are arguably all average and Reed would be an upgrade.  Also, Matthews missed a game and a half last year with a hamstring injury and while I'd be OK starting one of Jones/Zombo/Walden, I would not be fine starting two of them.

3rd Round: Dwayne Harris, WR, East Carolina - a little shorter than they like at 5'10", but with 268 career receptions and 3000 career receiving yards he can catch the ball, plus he has 51 career punt returns.  Let him and Murray battle it out for punt return duty.  (Replaces James Jones/Brett Swain)
If he's still available: Jarvis Jenkins, DL, Clemson - prototypical size for a 5-technique, not many sacks but 31 career TFLs as an interior DL is pretty good.
Don't be surprised if it's: John Moffit, OG, Wisconsin - it's possible both Colledge and Spitz won't be back, and Moffitt can play Colledge's role as starting LG and Spitz's role as backup center.

4th Round: Mike Mohamed, ILB, Cal - if Barnett is let go, which is very likely, they will need depth; Mohamed is athletic and has good cover skills, and the last ILB they drafted from Cal worked out alright (replaces Nick Barnett)
If he's still available: Chris Hairston, OT, Clemson - developmental depth if Lang or Newhouse aren't in their future plans
Don't be surprised if it's: Chykie Brown, CB, Texas - TT keeps his eye on guys whose stock falls due to injuries their senior year; Brown was overshadowed by Aaron Williams and Curtis Brown but got a lot of playing time his junior and sophomore year.

5th Round: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State - could be this year's Sam Shields, as he didn't start playing CB until his junior year.  I don't think he'll go as high as some think, but he could be a good developmental guy with high upside (replaces Brandon Underwood)
If he's still available: Roy Helu Jr., RB, Nebraska - good production, showed great speed at combine, has caught plenty of passes
Don't be surprised if it's: Bruce Miller, OLB, Central Florida - 56 career TFL and 34 career sacks, also has 3 career INTs; strong - most # of bench press reps at combine for a DE

5th Round (compensatory): David Carter, DL, UCLA - prototypical size for 5-technique, need depth behind Neal & Wilson (replaces Cullen Jenkins/Justin Harrell)
If he's still available: Jah Reid, OT, Central Florida - TT likes small-school linemen in the middle rounds, and Reid will have time to develop behind Clifton and Bulaga
Don't be surprised if it's: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada - why not?  He'll have all the time in the world to develop (hopefully), and if he can develop he can be traded for a much higher pick down the road if he isn't needed (knock on wood)

6th Round: Jarriel King, OT, South Carolina - OT depth is never a bad thing (competes with Newhouse/Campbell)
If he's still available: Tejay Johnson, S, TCU - Bigby can't be counted on to be healthy, so depth is needed just in case
Don't be surprised if it's: Nick Bellore, ILB, Central Michigan - if/when Barnett leaves they will need depth

7th Round (from Carolina): Someone from Louisiana Tech - could be Rob McGill, OT, or could be Phillip Livas, WR/PR, but the interesting one is Josh Victorian, CB.  Victorian was 4th in the nation in passes defensed but has gone unnoticed... very similar to another CB from LA Tech.

7th Round: Brad Thorson, OL, Kansas - yes, that Brad Thorson, the guy who left/was asked to leave UW a couple of years ago (supposedly the last straw was injuring Dan Moore in practice being too aggressive); has played C, G, and T, and can fill Spitz's role as backup G/C and possibly backup RT too.  TT loves linemen with versatility.  (Replaces Jason Spitz)
If he's still available: Alex Green, RB, Hawaii - good pass-catching skills, showed decent speed at combine, will need 3rd down back if Jackson isn't brought back
Don't be surprised if it's: Taylor Potts, QB, Texas Tech - compete with fellow TT alumn Graham Harrell for developmental role; if someone wants to overpay for Matt Flynn and offer a 3rd round or higher draft pick that's fine with me


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#2

Posted: March 08, 2011, 4:34 AM Post
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Bonus - averaged 27 yards on 52 career punt returns.

Sold!

Always love hearing your picks LouisEly. I also love how all of the RBs you picked have pass-catching ability. As much as I like both Grant and Jackson, they each have the opposite weak point. It would be nice to have a guy that can do what Jackson does but also work as a change-of-pace for Grant.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#3

Posted: March 08, 2011, 9:59 AM Post
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Thanks for bringing Moch to my attention. Love him. Seems like he has the makeup of a classic draft day riser, so I would not be surprised to see him go right around 32.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#4

Posted: March 08, 2011, 4:03 PM Post
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A few things about Jazzy's draft - I'm not sold on Moch - seems like a Cover 2 LB in the NFL.   Love Brooks Reed and would actually prefer him to Moch in terms of how they'd fit in the scheme.   I agree that they'll draft a QB again this year, and I think Kaepernick is the perfect fit.   He has all the tools and the brains, he just needs time to develop - who better than McCarthy to do that while he sits and watched ARod. 

Here's my quick 5 rd mock draft w/2 5ths for Kampman's loss. 

1st - Cameron Jordan - DE- Cal...  A good fit for the Packers, hustle player who is a bit under the radar and fits an area that could use some additional depth. 
2nd - Mark Herzlich - OLB - BC...   If it weren't for cancer, he'd be a a top 15 pick.   He's a football player and a typical TT guy.  
3rd - Greg Little - WR - NC...   6-3 220 former RB that's a bit raw for a receiver but has the athleticism, strength and great RAC ability to be a perfect replacement to James Jones.   He needs a little time to develop, but behind Drive, Jennings, Nelson, and Finley he'll have that time. 
4th - Derrick Locke - RB - Kentucky...  This is probably one of my favorite players in the draft.   He's small, but is a tough guy who can break the long run, catch the ball out of the backfield and return kicks (27 yard average 2 TD on KO returns).   He's a dynamo who could be another big play situational player for the Packers. 
5th - Jerrod Johnson - QB - TAMU...   For some reason he reminds me of former Packer QB Aaron Brooks.    He really struggled in 2010, but a lot of that may have been due to an arm injury that hampered his arm strength.    When healthy he's a pretty good developmental prospect. 
5th - Chris Neild - DT - WVU...   Raji played too much last year, and they cant continue to risk over working him.   Neild is a 1 trick pony, he can really stop the run, which surely wouldnt be a bad thing to add as far as depth. 




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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#5

Posted: March 08, 2011, 4:24 PM Post
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I don't know if Cameron Jordan is under the radar anymore, and I'm not so sure he gets anywhere close to #32.

I like the Moch pick for the reasons stated, and I could see him making a Jerry Hughes-like rise. When it comes to OLB, I think Justin Houston is also going to be a player that could be a factor at #32, if he's still around.

That said, gimme WR Leonard Hankerson. I can't go farther than that though. Nice work as always LouisEly.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#6

Posted: March 08, 2011, 8:42 PM Post
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Oh, I would love to see Cam Jordan as a Packer as much if not more than Moch, but like Colby said the word is that Jordan will be long gone by #22 much less #32. Might be this year's Alualu, his teammate at Cal. Watt's probably long gone too. I think the only 5-technique DE who might be available anywhere near #32 is Cameron Heyward. I like Houston also, but with a lot of teams running the 3-4 now I think he'll get scooped up prior to the Packers pick. With the Steelers, Patriots, Jets, and Ravens picking immediately ahead of GB I don't see Houston lasting past all four of those, particularly Baltimore and New England. Houston weighed in at 270 at the combine so even a team like Atlanta or Seattle could see him as a DE in a 4-3. It's entirely possible though that if one of those guys are still there in the late 20s that the Packers might trade up to get them.

Herzlich is a good story, but he ran a 4.92 at the combine and that scares me. I don't put a lot of stock in the combine, but that's just not good enough to be able to drop back in coverage and cover a TE, much less a RB. For comparison, Nick Fairley ran a 4.87 at 291 lbs., Marvin Austin ran a 4.90 at 309, and Wilkerson ran a 4.96 at 315. He'll get smoked by Greg Olson, Shiancoe, and Pettigrew. Depending on what he runs in their pro day - maybe he had an injury - I might take him as high as a 5th round pick, but I've seen the Packers LBs get burned enough times by TEs that I don't want to see them draft another marginally athletic LB.

Like the Neild pick - wouldn't mind him at all. Good suggestion.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#7

Posted: March 09, 2011, 12:56 PM Post
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5th Round (compensatory):
Don't be surprised if it's: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada - why not?  He'll have all the time in the world to develop (hopefully), and if he can develop he can be traded for a much higher pick down the road if he isn't needed (knock on wood)

The only way the Packers draft Colin Kaepernick is if they do so in the first round.  And even then he might not be available, right or wrong.  There's absolutely no way on Earth he'll be there at the end of the 5th round.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#8

Posted: March 25, 2011, 2:02 PM Post
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With Jolly's arrest this changes things a bit. (Edit: Adjusting for 4th round compensatory pick)

1) Muhammed Wilkerson, DL, Temple (or Corey Liuget, DL, Illinois)
2) DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
3) Sam Acho, OLB, Texas
4) Dwayne Harris, WR, ECU (trade up)
4b) Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah St. (comp pick)
5) (used to trade up in 4th to get Harris)
6) Nick Bellore, ILB, Central Michigan
7a) Brad Thorson, OL, Kansas
7b) Rob McGill, OT, Louisiana Tech


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#9

Posted: March 25, 2011, 2:22 PM Post
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Compensatory pick is a 4th - Pick 131

Peppers got the Bears a 3rd, Kampman got us a 4th.  Nice.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#10

Posted: March 25, 2011, 3:37 PM Post
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Nice return on a 5th round investment.  Years of solid production and a 4th rounder after he leaves.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#11

Posted: March 26, 2011, 8:08 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
With Jolly's arrest this changes things a bit.

1) Muhammed Wilkerson, DL, Temple
2a) Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada (via trade - Nick Barnett + 4th round pick)
2b) DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
3) Dwayne Harris, WR, ECU
4) (used to trade up)
5a) Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah St.
5b) Jarriel King, OT, South Carolina
6) Nick Bellore, ILB, Central Michigan
7a) Brad Thorson, OL, Kansas
7b) Taylor Potts, QB, Texas Tech
Unless something unlikely happens, won be able to trade players at the draft, only picks. Otherwise i like the idea of tradeing Barnett to move up. Flynn could probably been used to trade up too but not this year.

  


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#12

Posted: March 26, 2011, 4:37 PM Post
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DocBrewPack said:

Unless something unlikely happens, won be able to trade players at the draft, only picks. Otherwise i like the idea of tradeing Barnett to move up. Flynn could probably been used to trade up too but not this year.
 
I'm wondering if they could disguise it as say a "3rd round pick in 2012" and then once the lockout is over trade Barnett for that pick back.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#13

Posted: March 27, 2011, 6:54 AM Post
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4th - Derrick Locke - RB - Kentucky... This is probably one of my favorite players in the draft. He's small, but is a tough guy who can break the long run, catch the ball out of the backfield and return kicks (27 yard average 2 TD on KO returns). He's a dynamo who could be another big play situational player for the Packers.

The more I read about him, the more I like this pick. Walterfootball.com has the Packers taking him as a 5th rounder; I could also see them using their compensatory pick at the end of the 4th on a player like him. He has return ability, but that's not as necessary now that kickoffs are moving up 5 yards. I still think it's important to have a guy like this, and it doesn't look like Jackson will be back. Locke could add a lot of versatility to the offense at a cheap, late round price.

Will you have this left guard to be the 224th pick?

~ReverendBrewmeister


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#14

Posted: March 28, 2011, 3:11 AM Post
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Has Thompson ever drafted a little guy though?


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#15

Posted: March 31, 2011, 4:29 AM Post
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Even with losing Jolly and Jenkins, I don't see DE as a "need" position (thankfully, the Pack has few true needs). It moves DE up the list a little bit, but their DL looks like this:
Raji, Green, Pickett, Neal, Wilson and Wynn.

I don't see any sure-fire reason to draft a DE in the 1st round. Especially when 3-4 DEs don't normally go very high. Our needs at OLB and OT are much higher than needing another DE. I would even put NT higher on the list than DE.

Obviously the desire is BPA, but everything else being equal, I really doubt we jump for a DE in the 1st round.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#16

Posted: March 31, 2011, 9:46 AM Post
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And last year at this time, we had:  Jenkins, Pickett, Raji, Jolly, Harrell, and Wynn.  Three of those guys were playmakers (Jenkins, Raji, and Jolly).  Many were shocked that we took Neal in the 2nd round, and even more surprised when we grabbed Wilson in the 7th.  We then lose Jolly to a suspension after the draft, Harrell blows out his knee in the first game, Neal goes on the IR, have to re-sign Montgomery off the street, Wynn is re-signed after being cut, and pick up Green off of waivers.  We barely got by.  I don't think you can look at a position that carries 6 players on the active roster and say, "but we already have 6" and call it a day.  Raji is the only guy with proven big play ability (I'm hoping Neal picks up where he left off after training camp), so I'm not at all opposed to (and support) spending one of the top 3 picks on a defensive lineman.  I think it's a much bigger need than we had at this time last year.  You really can't have too many athletic big men.

I'd say the biggest three needs are (in no particular order): DL, OL, and WR.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#17

Posted: April 01, 2011, 7:06 AM Post
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And last year at this time, we had: Jenkins, Pickett, Raji, Jolly, Harrell, and Wynn

- It wasn't official, but everyone knew Jolly wasn't going to play. Harrell being injury prone wasn't being counted on (anyone win a bet that he would survive training camp?). So in reality it was more like 4 DL. We actually had a big need last year for DEs.

And I'm not saying we don't have ANY need. Its just not our biggest need. Losing Jolly probably bumped DE from last to somewhere in the middle of the positions. If you define "need" as two deep at every starting position, we lots of places with "needs".

OLB - its not a stretch for a 1st or 2nd round draft pick could be the starter opposite Matthews
OL - Starting LG is open. And a couple guys (Lang and Newhouse aren't locks as OTs), so another OT might be needed.
KR/PR - Not having to teach someone how to do this (or praying that a starter doesn't get hurt) would be nice. But a high draft pick would have to be able to play RB, WR, or CB also.
WR - Jones might be gone and Driver is aging...
RB - Grant is getting older, Starks is still unknown, Jackson maybe gone.
DL - Pickett and Green aren't great fits at NT or DE...
CB - Not a great need, but often that won't stop you from taking one
MLB - Well, technically they have 3 starter worthy and one good backup, but I doubt Barnett stays. A developmental guy would be good.
QB - I could see one in the 4-7 rounds
S - Pretty solid with the main 3 they have.
TE - 3 young and at least solid. But I'd still like to see Kendricks.
FB - No mas por favor
K - Even if you want to replace Crosby, you won't draft one high
LS - Good with Goode and you don't draft those anyway.
P - I was pretty happy with him last year. Especially the playoff games.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#18

Posted: April 01, 2011, 8:04 AM Post
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It wasn't official, but everyone knew Jolly wasn't going to play.

Jolly's suspension wasn't meted out until mid-July. At the time of the draft, it was looking like it would be a 4-gamer, not an indefinite ordeal. The Mike Neal selection was pretty surprising around these parts.


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#19

Posted: April 02, 2011, 1:41 AM Post
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So they have a star in BJ Raji, a very solid vet (who's getting older) in Ryan Pickett, and quite frankly a lot of question marks across the defensive line. 

Sure, Howard Green did a great job last year, but he's hardly a building block.  Sure Mike Neal showed some good things last year, but he's hardly a guarantee.  CJ Wilson will probably get better, but what's his ceiling?  Jarrius Wynn?  Just a guy...a guy that was only on the team last year because of all the injuries. 

I agree that a potential stud opposite Clay Matthews would be great, but defensive line is definitely a need nowadays.  Fast forward two years from now, and what do they have on their roster right now at DL that will still be around?

Losing Cullen Jenkins and bringing back Jolly was ideal.  Now that Jolly can't "replace" Jenkins, they're an injury to Pickett and/or Raji to being close to paper thin. 


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  2011 Packers Draft Preview and Predictions
#20

Posted: April 04, 2011, 1:00 AM Post
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Neal was a little surprising, but not a shock. And when Jolly's suspension was official, most people figured that TT had more info than the general public. Per GSYPE's words at the draft: "So when does a Jolly suspension get announced?"

And I'm not saying we are "set" at DL, either. But with Jolly gone, its like everyone (beat writers too) overacted to that latest news and suddenly we "have" to get a DE in the 1st round.

Maybe I'm banking on Neal too much, but I guess I'm just plugging him into Jenkin's spot and figuring we have essentially the same DL as the end of last year. Could we use more depth or playmakers on the DL? Sure, but I'd rather spend a high pick on an OLB or OT that is more of a skill position than a 3-4 DE.

At OLB, there is a serious need for a starter. At minimum, someone to push Zombo/Walden. I'd prefer a playmaker OLB and a mediocre DE than the reverse.

OL and DL have similar depth concerns, but finding a decent DL later in the draft is easier than finding a decent OT.

Then depth at WR, RB, DL, and CB are all very close to being a tie (unless you find a WR/RB/CB than can double as a KR/PR - or maybe like the Patriots, a Guard).


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