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Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread

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  Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#1

Posted: May 17, 2016, 12:23 PM Post
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Because what else are you going to do while waiting for the OTAs?

Number in (bracket) is my prediction for how many they will keep. Green players are my prediction for who makes the roster.

QBs (2)
- Locks: Rogers, Hundley
- Bubble: None
- Long Shots: Everyone else (Callahan, Williams) - Realistically only playing for a PS audition at best. Only an injury could change that, but even at that point, we probably bring back Flynn.

RBs (5)
- Locks: Lacy, Starks, Ripkowski
- Bubble: Crockett, Burks, Jackson - Kuhn's spot replaced by a scat back. 50/50 on Burks or Jackson, but I like Burks better. With only 1 FB, the 5th RB might become a 4th TE...
- Long Shots: Squirewell - great name, Kuhn - not on current roster, but probably on speed dial.

WRs (6)
- Locks: Nelson, Cobb, Montgomery, Janis - Janis had too many WOW games last year to give up on him now. I think he makes the 3rd WR rotation with Montgomery this year.
- Bubble: Adams, Abbrederis, Davis - I think they will hold 6 if Adams bounces back and Davis looks competent. If Adams continues last year's path, I don't think they hesitate to cut him.
- Long Shots: Allison, Johnson, Robinson, Waters, Williams. - Geronimo Allison intrigues me.

TEs (3)
- Locks: Cook, Rodgers
- Bubble: Henry, Perillo, Backman - A toss up between Henry and Backman. If they keep 4, they probably add Perillo for blocking (or maybe sign Quarless).
- Long Shots: Pierce

OL (9)
- Locks: Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Spriggs, Lang, Sitton, Taylor, Linsley, Tretter
- Bubble: Barclay, Rotheram, Walker - The top backup T and backup G are locked up. Plus, Tretter is the second T and G backup. So whom do you want here? I think it comes down to Rotheram or Walker. With Barclay being an option if Spriggs starts slow.
- Long Shots: James, Murphy, Kowalski, Tucker, Flores

DL (6)
- Locks: Clark, Jones, Lowry, Daniels, Guion
- Bubble: Price, Ringo - People see Clark as a NT this year, but I don't. Price is more of a true NT.
- Long Shots: McBride, Anderson, Kuder
- Suspension: Pennel - Would make the team if not suspended.

LB (9)
- Locks: Elliot, Fackrell, Martinez, Matthews, Peppers, Perry, Ryan
- Bubble: Barrington, Bradford, Brown, Thomas - Maybe Barrington surprises me and bounces back from injury. I saw one reporter rank him above both Ryan and Martinez but I don't buy it. I have a feeling the injury is going to take a bit out of him and there wasn't much there to begin with for speed. So I'm picking an upset with Brown here. Thomas is nearly a lock since we didn't really address the nickel LB position.
- Long Shots: Gilbert, McCray, Pikula

CB (6)
- Locks: Randall, Rollins, Shields, Gunter
- Bubble: Daniel, Dorleant, Hawkins, Jette - All the UDFAs have a pretty equal chance at the 6th CB spot. Hawkins just jumps out at me. And its hard to pass on a name like "Jette" for a CB. That is even better than Shields! [smile]
- Long Shots: None. With Goodson's suspension and Casey Hayward signing with SD, there are 2 roster spots up for the taking, thus no one is a long shot.
- Suspension: Goodson- Would make the team if not suspended.

S (4)
- Locks: Hyde, Burnett, Clinton-Dix
- Bubble: Banjo, Brice - I like Brice, but I doubt he makes it over Banjo. Brice's best chance is to beat out the 6th CB.
- Long Shots: Evans

ST (3)
- Locks: Crosby,
- Bubble: Masthay, Mortell, Lavato - probably a straight up 50/50 odds here for punter. Mortell is nothing special. Masthay puts up good numbers, but is inconsistent. Will he bounce back like Crosby or dive bomb? Lavato is healthy and was fine last year. Probably still competing against Goode or other LS around the league.
- Long Shots: Brett Goode - ok, not technically on the roster, but if he is healthy might be signed. I'm betting on not healthy.

Edit: I forgot that Goodson was going to be suspended for 4 games also.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#2

Posted: September 02, 2016, 1:39 PM Post
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Updated version

QBs (3)
- Locks: Rogers, Hundley
- Bubble: Callahan - Hundley's injuries and Callahan's play make it impossible to cut him.
- Long Shots: Williams - In a normal year, he would've turned heads, but Callahan overshadowed him.

RBs (4)
- Locks: Lacy, Starks, Ripkowski
- Bubble: Burks, Ross - I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a waiver wire pickup here. But Burks has played pretty well.
- Long Shots: Squirewell
- IR: Crockett

WRs (6)
- Locks: Nelson, Cobb, Montgomery, Janis
- Bubble: Adams, Abbrederis - I think they either waive/trade Adams or put Janis on IR designated to return (but has to make the 53-man roster first before being put on IR to meet the criteria to return).
- Long Shots: Allison, Johnson, Robinson, Waters, Williams. - Geronimo Allison intrigues me and still does. But makes the PS.
- IR: Davis - my prediction. Not sure how injured he is, but I'm guessing that they resolve the logjam with the IR.

TEs (3)
- Locks: Cook, Rodgers, Perillo
- Long Shots: Henry, Pierce
- IR: Backman

OL (9)
- Locks: Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Spriggs, Lang, Sitton, Tretter
- Bubble: Murphy, Barclay, Taylor - Taylor did himself no favors at G this preseason, but survives. Barclay lasts until Linsley returns.
- Long Shots: James, Kowalski, Tucker, Flores, Stueck
- IR: Walker
- PUP: Linsley

DL (5)
- Locks: Clark, Lowry, Daniels, Guion
- Bubble: Price, Ringo - Wouldn't surprise me to see a waiver wire pickup for experience.
- Long Shots: McBride, Anderson, Kuder
- Suspension: Pennel - Comes back in 4 games.

OLB (6)
- Locks: Elliot, Fackrell, Matthews, Peppers, Perry, Jones
- Bubble: Gilbert

ILB (4)
- Locks: Martinez, Ryan
- Bubble: Barrington, Thomas, Bradford - Pretty much down to Bradford or Thomas. Close call. Bradford is a bigger hitter, but Thomas is better in coverage. I guess in a passing league they go with Thomas.
- Long Shots: Brown, Pikula

CB (5)
- Locks: Randall, Rollins, Shields, Gunter
- Bubble: Hawkins, Daniel, Dorleant, Jette - Comes down to Daniel at CB and Evans at S. I pick the Milwaukee boy.
- Suspension: Goodson- I doubt he even makes the team, but they will wait until his suspension is over to cover for injuries.

S (5)
- Locks: Hyde, Burnett, Clinton-Dix
- Bubble: Banjo, Brice, Evans - I think both Brice and Evans beat out Banjo as I can see both having starter potential and better speed.


ST (3)
- Locks: Crosby, Schum, Lavato
- Long Shots: A punter on the waiver wire. Schum punted very well, so he probably stays.

Practice Squad: Allison (WR), Brown(ILB), Ross (RB), Pierce (TE), Kuder (NT), Gilbert (OLB), Daniels (CB), Patrick (G), Whitehead (S), claims from other teams to fill out.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#3

Posted: September 03, 2016, 5:08 PM Post
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Josh Sitton was cut... I'm stunned. I keep waiting for the punch line


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#4

Posted: September 03, 2016, 10:29 PM Post
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Well, I've been saying for two years now that he's overrated. His back may be worse than is being let on, but last year Sitton ranked 7th among all OL in penalty yardage. In 2013 he ranked 14th. 30 teams, 5 starting OL - 7th out of somewhere around 150, minus a few for injuries.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#5

Posted: September 05, 2016, 7:18 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
Well, I've been saying for two years now that he's overrated. His back may be worse than is being let on, but last year Sitton ranked 7th among all OL in penalty yardage. In 2013 he ranked 14th. 30 teams, 5 starting OL - 7th out of somewhere around 150, minus a few for injuries.


Injuries are a big part of a counting stat; Sitton racked up those penalties because he was available to play. He also played for the Packers up-tempo offense, which means he conceivably played more snaps than a lot of other linemen. I don't know if there's a site out there tracking penalty yards per snap, but I'd be curious to see how that affects Sitton's ranking.

He signed a 3-year deal with Chicago, so we'll find out if his back is up to the task. I fully expect TT to give up on players sooner rather than later, but there was zero risk of dead money here, since he was in the final year of his deal.

OLine play is largely about continuity, and the team has just shaken theirs up right before the season. Curious to see who moves into the starting line going forward...especially with Linsley out for half the year.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#6

Posted: September 05, 2016, 9:42 AM Post
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There were some comments in the JS/PG from another team's scouts about Sitton's "signs of slippage." Clearly, he's been banged up the past few years.

This one is going to be interesting to watch. Either TT looks like a brilliant GM once again, or Sitton dominates us for Chicago for the next few years. My bet is on the former, but I share bjk's concerns about who actually takes his spot...


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#7

Posted: September 06, 2016, 9:32 PM Post
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If Sitton is so good... how come nobody claimed him when all he had was one year $6.85M of unguaranteed money left?

And then the Bears, instead of claiming him with one year and $6.85M of unguaranteed money, give him $10M guaranteed?

Who's the dummy there, the Packers or the Bears?

(And the Bears are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year; it's not like Sitton was signed by New England, Seattle, Carolina, or even Minnesota.)

Yes, penalties can be a bit of a function of plays, but you can't tell me that when there are 160 starting OL positions in the league that so many guys are injured that ranking 7th in penalty yardage (again, out of 160 starting positions) is anything but bad. His best years he ranked in the 30's; again, the reference point is 160 starting spots.

In 2015 the Packers ran 1056 plays, and their opponents ran 1015 - a total of 4% more plays. The Packers ranked 9th in total plays, with the median being 1035 plays. They ran about 2% more plays than the average team. The impact of that on penalty stats is negligible.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#8

Posted: September 12, 2016, 11:31 AM Post
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Just got back from a vacation, so I'm a little late chiming in...

I too was pretty stunned. I can understand that Sitton may be slipping, but are we 110% sure that he is worse than Lane Taylor? Seems like it would've been easy to hold on to him for this last year and then let him go... Especially given TT's fondness for compensation draft picks. I suppose all of that emphasizes that TT and MM are confident this was the best move.

Without looking, I'd guess that Sitton qualified for FA immediately given his vet status. Thus, no one could claim him.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#9

Posted: September 12, 2016, 6:48 PM Post
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From what ive heard on the radio, it sounds like the decision was made more because of off the field than on the field, which is why they didnt just play him out the year and get the comp pick.

NFL Blitz has better referees.


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  Re: Ridiculously early 53-man prediction thread
#10

Posted: September 13, 2016, 3:06 PM Post
Posts: 477
Looks like at least some of the Sitton money found its way into Bakhtiari's pockets.

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/9/13/12901724/packers-sign-david-bakhtiari-to-4-year-contract-extension-per-report


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